☕️ Anticip(AI)ting Nvidia

Good morning.

While you’d typically be forgiven for assuming that the biggest news of the day is that Travis Kelce is en route to join Taylor Swift Sydney-side, Nvidia is the true darling dominating headlines this morning.  

The AI semiconductor giant will announce fourth-quarter earnings this morning on the close of US markets, and investors are waiting with bated breath to learn whether the hype has been justified. Analysts expect Nvidia to report a whopping US$20.4 billion ($31.17 billion) for the quarter, up nearly 240% year over year, closely tracking its share price increase over the same period. Nvidia’s influential weighting on indexes could dramatically shake up markets.

A JP Morgan trading note eloquently put it: "Soooo, bad is bad, good is fine/bad, but too good might be not good."

🏆 LOI Subscriber #TBD

Market movers

Shares in Woolworths slid 6.6% during trading yesterday after the group posted a net loss of $781 million for H1 2024, and CEO Brad Banducci announced his retirement. WOW reported that the net loss was mainly due to a non-cash impairment of $1.5 billion against its NZ operations and another $209 million after changing the accounting recognition for its remaining stake in drinks giant Endeavour Group. Excluding these, half-year net profit rose 2.5% to $929 million. Banducci has insisted that his departure is in no way tied to Sunday’s heated ABC interview, which he walked out of, nor other recent controversies.

The quick sync

• French building materials giant Saint-Gobain is seeking a takeover of CSR Limited, confirming its bid for the company at $9 per share, valuing CSR at $4.3 billion. (AFR)

• Looking for Australia’s ‘white whale’ across leading quantum computing startups. (Capital Brief)

• The Finance Department accidentally sent out sensitive contract details of up to 400 service providers last week, including commercial in-confidence fee rates and personal information, across hundreds of competitors. KPMG, Boston Consulting Group, Accenture, Deloitte, Proximity, Nous Group and Minter Ellison were among those affected. (The Australian)

• Rio Tinto has approved the world’s largest mining project, with its board giving the green light for a US$20 billion iron ore development in the Republic of Guinea, West Africa. (Financial Times)

• Waning European demand for EVs is adding to pressure on Australian producers already bearing the weight of global lithium oversupply. (Capital Brief)

Trading floor

M&A

• Speculation fades on Incitec Pivot's sale, Senex explores options. (The Australian)

• Orica plans $400m funding for Cyanco acquisition from Cerberus. (AFR)

• Australian Unity acquires myHomecare Group from Quadrant Private Equity. (AFR)

• Coates is set to bolster its fleet by 650 machines with the acquisition of Sydney-based competitor GTH Equipment. (BNA)

• Canaccord Genuity launches a $60m block trade in Sayona Mining, reportedly sold by Piedmont Lithium at an 18.8% discount. (AFR)

• Shareholder unrest at BNK Banking Corp over board member share sale to Firstmac at a premium. (AFR)

• Pacific Equity Partners is in the lead to acquire JR Richards & Sons, a waste management business in regional NSW. (AFR)

• UST acquires Leonardo, a consultancy and tech company originally founded in Brisbane and now headquartered in Melbourne. (BNA)

• JPMorgan seeks buyers for $230m Azure Minerals shares, acquired by SQM and Rinehart. (AFR)

• Transurban taps Goldman Sachs for Denver toll road sale. (AFR)

• Genesis Capital gains support from Pacific Smiles shareholders. (AFR)

Capital Markets

• Santos' $1.3b investor payout amid profit decline criticised as unsustainable. (SMH)

• Healius shares dropped 6% after another profit downgrade. (The Australian)

VC

• Australia’s national science agency partners with Stone & Chalk, Google Cloud for AI Sprint program. (Smart Company)

People moves

• Qantas appoints John Mullen as new chairman. (BNA)

The watercooler